With the exception of South Florida, it looks like a very quiet week across the Southeast U.S. High pressure will dominate over the region keeping temperatures quite warm and enhancing evapotranspiration rates. The jet stream will remain anchored well to our north with enhanced precipitation from Texas, across the Mississippi River Valley, and then east into portions of the Ohio Valley.

An unusual hybrid low pressure will remain in place over southeast portions of Florida. This will bring several consecutive days of rain to the area, likely exceeding several inches around the Miami metro area.

While this week looks like another dry week over the area, next week potentially looks more interesting. Here is a messy chart that shows a variety of meteorological parameters over a period of time extending from April 30th (top left) to May 16th (bottom right).

What I want to point out in this image are the green-shaded regions. These indicate areas of atmospheric moisture. In the top strip (April 30-May 8), hopefully you can note that available moisture is “patchy” and does not extend too far through the atmospheric column.

On the other hand, the second week (May 9 – May 16) looks more active. The jet stream is forecast to swing back south increasing the overall atmospheric energy. There are two significant periods of enhanced moisture (indicated by the red arrows). Note how the moisture with these events extends from the earth’s surface well into the atmosphere. This is the type of set up we need for more significant rain over the area.

Important note – models tend to change this far out. It very well could swing back to drier conditions in subsequent model runs. I’ll provide an update on this potential change in pattern later this week