The next rain event will move across the Southeast U.S. over the next couple of days. Rain will develop along a surface cold front and be supported by a fairly weak upper impulse of energy. Overall, it looks like a rather typical mid-winter system with widespread light to moderate rainfall totals. Hydrologic impacts will primarily be a winter season recharge of upper soils and some modest runoff into areas rivers and lakes.

Here is the set up as of Friday morning. The cold front that passes through will tend to stall across northern Florida (more on this later). The shaded areas of blue and green indicate cumulative rainfall through Friday. Once again, as we have seen all winter, the heaviest rain totals are expected over Mississippi, Alabama, and North Georgia, before tapering off over areas hardest hit by drought.

The most likely rainfall range will be from 0.25 to 0.50 inches, however, heavier areas/pockets nearing an inch or so are possible over Mississippi, Alabama, and North Georgia.

Remember the stalled front? This front will linger over parts of the Southeast U.S. into next week. At least three rain events can be expected. The first event will occur over the next few days, the next over the weekend, and yet another towards the middle of next week. The good news is that with this frontal boundary draped over southern sections of the Southeast U.S., there is a chance for more significant rainfall over the core of the drought, especially next week. It is still too early to put much confidence in this, but it is something to keep an eye on.